isukun
I don't disagree that motion controls will stick around in a more limited fashion, the hardware manufacturers are going to want to offer as robust a control scheme as possible both for different playing styles and for developers who want to actually take some initiative and do something more experimental. I just don't see them going quite to the extents that Nintendo went to this generation to attempt to eliminate the possibility of more traditional control methods.
To be honest, I'm seeing a future where consoles will be asked to pull "double duty" as motion-control-centric devices primarily for casual play, with the occasional hardcore game designed for the system.
So, uh... the same as we've got now, I guess.
Anyway, thinking about it that way, I'm imagining something like the Natal becoming the standard for one simple fact: no controllers. The problem with the Wii is that, to optimize your experience with some games, you need 4 classic controllers, in addition to the 4 wii remotes, and maybe 4 nunchuks you already own for the motion-based game. With something like Natal you get one sensor, and any additional controls could conceivably be done with a single standard controller. The controller itself could be designed with just a light or two on that would let the Natal keep track of its position in space, performing largely the function that the motion sensor in a PS3 remote does, reducing the cost of controllers.
The problem is that the "casual" crowd who buys the Wii because they think the motion controls are fun are the types who don't buy a lot of games. It's the same people who can play Bejeweled every day and have no real interest in Puzzle Quest or, Hell, even other casual games like Peggle.
I'll give an example: My stepmom really likes Raving Rabbids 2. It's a decent exercise, the little whatsits are cute, and she can, for the most part, keep up with all the games. However, she has no real interest in the other games in the series or in other Wii games. She just likes the game she has, and if she's still having fun with it, why buy more?
Of course, this presents a big problem for game companies, and potentially for us, as gamers. Nintendo is the only company in this generation with any potential to gain from a setup like this, since they're the only ones producing a console that provides any profit for the company. If someone buys a Wii and never plays anything other than Wii Sports, that's still $50 in Nintendo's pocket. Not ideal, but not a loss. Whenever the other two consoles start getting close to making a profit, they just bring the price down, pushing themselves further into debt with every console sold. The
need people to buy videogames.
Of course, this might lead to what I mentioned earlier: that simply it's going to be a long time before anyone releases a new system. If the motion-control thing sticks around with the kind of audience it has now, but extended the PS3 and 360, we might simply get to a point where the cost of the console is lowered enough that Sony and Microsoft can just leave the console they have now out in the market and live off of the console sales through motion control to the casual audience like Nintendo is able to. Why release an entirely new system when, in this console generation, something that is only slightly stronger than last-gen tech is substantially more profitable because of one feature?
Gah, sorry, that was kind of rambling. Don't take it too harshly if not a lot of that makes sense. Anyway, to get back to the original point of this discussion: I don't think we're going to see new consoles any time soon, but I think we will start to see the other two consoles packaged with motion control out the gate... and probably Wiis packaged with the Motionplus as well.